In a stark warning, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted a potentially record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season. According to NOAA’s latest predictions, there could be between 17 to 25 named tropical cyclones this year, marking the highest May forecast on record for the Atlantic Ocean. Outside experts from universities, private firms, and other government agencies have also projected an intense hurricane season.
NOAA’s administrator Rick Spinrad shared in a recent press conference that forecasters expect eight to 13 of these named storms to develop into hurricanes—defined by wind speeds of at least 74 miles per hour—and of those, four to seven could become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) with winds exceeding 111 miles per hour.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” Spinrad said. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
High Chances of Above-Normal Activity
NOAA estimates an 85 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a five percent chance of a below-normal season. Typically, an average Atlantic hurricane season comprises 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. With predictions nearly doubling the average, the risk of North America facing significant tropical storms or major hurricanes increases substantially.
Warm Ocean Temperatures Fueling Concerns
This year’s aggressive hurricane outlooks are driven by unique and extreme conditions. Forecasters anticipate record warm Atlantic waters combined with the potential emergence of a La Niña weather pattern.
Over the past century, Atlantic temperatures have gradually increased, but last year saw a rapid and concerning rise, according to data from the Climate Prediction Center. This year, temperatures in the hurricane-forming region are even higher than last year, which produced 20 named storms. These warmer temperatures provide additional fuel for storm formation and can lead to rapid intensification, where storms jump categories within a day.
The Role of El Niño and La Niña
Forecasts this year are also influenced by the transition from an El Niño to a potential La Niña pattern. El Niño, characterized by warm Pacific Ocean temperatures, typically suppresses storm development. However, last year’s warm Atlantic waters mitigated El Niño’s dampening effect. As El Niño subsides, forecasters anticipate fewer barriers to storm development this season.
Michelle L’Heureux from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center indicated a 77 percent likelihood of La Niña forming during the peak hurricane season. La Niña, coupled with record sea surface temperatures, is expected to create a highly conducive environment for storm formation and intensification.
The unique combination of warm Atlantic waters and the potential for La Niña sets the stage for a potentially severe hurricane season, underscoring the importance of timely and effective readiness efforts. With all indicators pointing toward a hyperactive hurricane season, preparation and vigilance are crucial.
