If you’ve doom-scrolled through TikTok real estate content lately, the vibes are confirmed: buying your first home is harder than ever. According to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) 2024 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, first-time buyers represent just 24 percent of all purchases. That’s a historic low down 32 percent from the previous year. What’s more, the average first-time buyer is 38 years old, a full 10 years older than their 1980s counterparts.

“First-time buyers face high home prices, high mortgage interest rates and limited inventory, making them a decade older with significantly higher incomes than previous generations of buyers,” said Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist.

Meanwhile, the median home price hit $415,200 in October, marking the 28th consecutive month of year-over-year increases and a record for any October. Homes are also sitting longer, with a median of 34 days on market compared to 29 days last year, giving buyers slightly more breathing room.

Where you live is a significant factor in the equation as well.

“First-time homebuyers are facing headwinds in the Northeast due to a lack of supply and in the West because of high home prices,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. “First-time buyers fared better in the Midwest because of the plentiful supply of affordable houses and in the South because there is sufficient inventory.”

Here’s what’s driving the divide: a record 26 percent of buyers paid cash for their homes in 2024, while younger buyers struggle to compete with repeat buyers who leverage built-up equity for massive down payments. According to The Agency’s Red Paper, luxury homes priced above $1 million saw sales climb 5.2 percent in the first half of 2024, even as overall home sales dropped nearly 13 percent.

Lower mortgage rates could help. Rates dipped to two-year lows around 6 percent in September before rising again.

“Looking ahead, home shoppers in today’s market face some advantages from falling mortgage rates and seasonally slower competition,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “At the same time, a lack of housing affordability continues to be a challenge keeping home sales in their historically low level.”

So, for now, the market remains bifurcated: wealthy cash buyers thriving while first-timers wait on the sidelines, watching homeownership drift further out of reach. Still, there’s reason for cautious optimism. Housing inventory has risen for 20 consecutive months, giving buyers more options and less competition than the pandemic frenzy. And homebuilders are offering incentives, with a June 2025 survey showing that 37 percent had cut prices by an average of five percent. For buyers willing to accept mid-6s mortgage rates rather than wait for a drop that may never come, conditions are finally improving.